The new issue of the magazine for political education, POLIS, has been published: «The machine is political. AI, democracy and education»
The rapid development of artificial intelligence has recently caused a stir and raises important questions that challenge fundamental democratic values: What are the consequences of new technological innovations for current democratic systems? And how can a democratic society, which is interested in promoting democratic principles rather than dismantling them, deal with them?
Particular attention will be paid to the role of schools in dealing with these developments. How are AI applications used in today’s schools? What facets of this development does civic education need to address? And to what extent is this relevant from a democratic perspective? Our contributions are intended to stimulate reflection and discussion.
Those who spend a lot of money on a referendum campaign are noticed more. However, if we take a closer look at the subjectively perceived intensity of a campaign for yes or no voters, a distortion becomes apparent: the campaign budget of the opposing side is overestimated. Results from a research project conducted by the Centre for Democracy Studies Aarau in collaboration with Année Politique Suisse show how this comes about.
Before referendums, posters and advertisements attempt to convince Swiss citizens to vote yes or no on the proposals. But how do citizens perceive the strength and thus the effectiveness of a referendum campaign on a particular issue? And does this subjective assessment correspond to the objectively measurable advertising expenditure? This is being investigated in an evaluation as part of the research project «Direct Democracy Switzerland in the 21st Century (DDS21)» (see box).
Budget creates effective campaigns
When citizens are asked how effective referendum campaigns are, their assessment corresponds quite closely with the measurable criteria of «advertising expenditure» and «advertisement volume». The authors of the evaluation note: «The assessment of the intensity of the campaigns shortly before the referendums in March and June corresponds to the measurable actual intensity. In both cases, respondents rate the advertising campaigns with the largest budgets and the highest volume of advertisements (13th AHV pension and Electricity Act) as the most intense.»
If you think your opponent has more money
However, if we differentiate between the perceptions of the yes and no camps, a more interesting effect emerges: the overestimation of the opposing side. When citizens are asked whether they believe one side was promoted more strongly than the other, the objective metrics do not correspond as well with subjective perceptions. Those who accepted a proposal generally estimated that the ‘no’ camp had run a more intensive campaign – and vice versa. Their own voting decision thus influenced their perception of how effective the opposing side’s campaign was.
One possible explanation for this effect could be that, from a psychological perspective, the different wording of the content resulted in a different assessment (framing bias). Interestingly, a similar effect occurs regardless of whether a camp wins or loses a vote.
Victim or outsider?
If a person votes yes and the proposal is rejected, respondents attributed this to the perceived financial superiority of the opposing camp. Seeing oneself as a «victim» of the higher budget of the opposing side can be a way of reducing the «stress» of a referendum defeat.
Fig. 1: How is the intensity of political advertising assessed by those voting yes and no on referendum 13 on the 13th AHV pension?
If the proposal is accepted, an outsider effect tends to kick in: even then, supporters (wrongly) assume that the opposing camp had more money at its disposal than their own. Despite the (supposed) campaign superiority of the opposing side, their own vote ultimately prevailed. The satisfaction that this brings is also stress-reducing in terms of «coping».
The authors of the evaluation summarise: «Even though it seems obvious that the intensity of referendum campaigns is important for the outcome of direct democratic decisions, we know surprisingly little about the effect of political advertising on individuals. Our findings suggest that citizens have a good sense of the intensity of political campaigns in general, but that this sense is misleading when it comes to distinguishing between the advertising power of the respective yes and no camps.»
The project «Direct Democracy Switzerland in the 21st Century (DDS21)»
Since 2023, the research project Direct Democracy Switzerland in the 21st Century (DDS21), funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF), has been investigating the reasons for Swiss citizens’ participation and voting decisions after each federal referendum. Led by the Centre for Democracy Studies Aarau (CDA), which is affiliated with the University of Zurich, DDS21 brings together members of Switzerland’s eight university political science institutes and the Liechtenstein Institute.
The data used in this article comes from surveys conducted after the votes on 3 March 2024 and 9 June 2024, in which more than 1,000 people were asked about their perceptions of the intensity of the voting campaigns for the five proposals: 13th AHV pension, pension initiative, premium relief initiative, electricity law, cost brake initiative, stop compulsory vaccination. Advertising expenditure and the number of advertisements per initiative were compared with the estimated intensity of the campaign.
Prof. Dr. Marc Bühlmann, Director Année Politique Suisse marc.buehlmann@unibe.ch, 079 354 88 79
Prof. Dr. Isabelle Stadelmann-Steffen, Institut für Politikwissenschaft Bern isabelle.stadelmann@unibe.ch, 031 684 83 55
Prof. Dr. Daniel Kübler, Center for Democracy Studies Aarau daniel.kuebler@zda.uzh.ch, 078 815 67 60
About the CDA
The Centre for Democracy Studies Aarau is a scientific research centre supported by the University of Zurich, the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland, the Canton of Aargau and the City of Aarau. It conducts basic research and addresses current issues relating to democracy – regionally, in Switzerland and worldwide. www.zdaarau.ch
About Année Politique Suisse
Since 1965, Année Politique Suisse (APS) has been providing a precise, factual and concise chronicle of developments in Swiss politics and society. We follow political issues from their inception to any referendums and their implementation, report on important social controversies, summarise practical studies and reports, track landmark court rulings, developments in the party landscape and much more. A central concern for us is to embed current events in their historical context, because current events are often merely highlights of lengthy, often repetitive processes that can be traced with APS and placed in a larger context.
APS also provides a wealth of data on Swiss politics (e.g. swissvotes.ch) and participates in various political science research projects focusing on Switzerland. www.anneepolitique.swiss
We would like to thank you sincerely for your interest and for attending the 2026 Aarau Democracy Days. Both the academic conference and the evening event were fully booked. We are already looking forward to the next edition in 2027.
Are 16-year-olds ready for politics? Are they mature enough to make political decisions compared to young adults? Do they feel confident about making political decisions? How often do you keep yourself informed about political issues? A new study by the Centre for Democracy Aarau provides answers.
The debate on lowering the voting age to 16 is gaining momentum in Europe and raises important questions about the political maturity of minors. In political debates, one of the arguments put forward is that 16- and 17-year-olds are not yet mature enough to participate in political decision-making.
Comparing adolescents and young adults
The study by the Centre for Democracy Aarau examines the political maturity of young Swiss citizens aged between 16 and 25. It shows that 16- and 17-year-olds are politically as mature as the comparable category of 18- to 25-year-olds. The study is based on a representative survey of 4,000 young Swiss citizens.
Study author Robin Gut interprets the results as follows: «It is interesting to see that minors aged 16 and 17 are roughly as mature as young adults. These minors are not yet eligible to vote and are therefore not yet fully socialised into our political system. Nevertheless, they are just as politically mature as young adults. The result is consistent with most international studies on the political maturity of adolescents and young adults.»
What is political maturity?
The study measures «political maturity» using two subcategories: When it comes to «political disposition», i.e. attitudes towards politics in general, the data shows that 16- and 17-year-old Swiss citizens display a similar level of political interest and political self-efficacy as young adults. They also have a similar attitude towards voting as a civic duty. In addition, the younger group has a stronger intention to participate in elections. The intention to participate in referendums is comparable to that of 18- to 25-year-olds. Regarding «political behaviourshows that 16- and 17-year-olds consume political information in the media more frequently than 24- to 25-year-olds. They are also exposed to political discussions as frequently as young adults.
About the study
The Political Maturity of Youths and Young Adults: Empirical Evidence from Switzerland
Data basis: The study is based on a representative survey on political participation among young people, which was conducted by the Centre for Democracy Aarau in spring 2023 among teenagers and young adults aged between 16 and 25 in Switzerland. The Federal Statistical Office took a random sample of 20,000 people aged between 16 and 25 from the population register. A total of around 4,000 Swiss citizens took part in the survey. The survey was financed by the Swiss UNESCO Commission and the Swiss Society for the Common Good.
Methodology: For the analysis, respondents were weighted according to age, gender and language. Ordinal and binary logistic models were applied.
Download study
Gut, R., Ezzaini, J. & Kübler, D. (2025). The Political Maturity of Youths and Young Adults: Empirical Evidence from Switzerland. Swiss Political Science Review, 00, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12662
The Centre for Democracy Aarau is a scientific research centre supported by the University of Zurich, the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland, the Canton of Aargau and the City of Aarau. Es betreibt Grundlagenforschung und befasst sich mit aktuellen Fragen zur Demokratie – regional, in der Schweiz und weltweit. www.zdaarau.ch
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