Manipulated Referendums: Direct Democracy in a Gray Area
If anything serves as a barometer of the state of a direct democracy, it is referendums. However, referendums are sometimes exploited for authoritarian purposes. A new study by the Center for Democracy in Aarau illustrates this with two examples from Hungary and Guinea.
The report «The World of Referendums: 2025 Edition» by the Center for Democracy Studies in Aarau analyzes all national referendums worldwide as well as those at the cantonal level in Switzerland. The analysis is based on the Referendum Database (RDB) (see box).
Hungary: Moving Away from Established Instruments
In Hungary, Viktor Orbán held a public consultation in 2025 that is often referred to as a referendum, but is not one in substance. The consultation addressed the question of whether Ukraine should join the EU or not. The Hungarian government portrayed Ukraine’s membership as an existential threat to Hungary’s economy and security. However, the referendum was not conducted using the legally established instruments of a referendum, but rather via an online tool. It is unclear whether measures were in place to prevent voters from casting multiple ballots. According to the government, 95 percent voted against Ukraine’s accession.
Lead author Mara Labud comments: «Our report shows that, at the international level, governments also use referendums for autocratic purposes. In Hungary, procedures that appear democratic at first glance have been used to advance autocratic goals. This phenomenon is well known. Nevertheless, it is cause for concern, as it erodes the credibility of established institutions. The same applies to Guinea.»
Broken Promises in Guinea
In Guinea, the ruling military junta held a referendum on a new constitution intended to lead the country out of the transitional phase following the 2021 military coup. Despite calls for a boycott from the opposition, the proposal was officially approved with approximately 90 percent approval and an officially reported high turnout of 88 percent. There was virtually no opposition campaign, and opposition parties and the media were severely restricted. The new constitution significantly expands the president’s powers and extends his term from five to seven years. Thanks to the referendum, coup leader Mamady Doumbouya was able to consolidate his power and, despite earlier promises to the contrary, had himself elected president in the aftermath of the referendum.
About the report
| The report «The World of Referendums: 2025 Edition» is based on data from the Referendum Database (RDB). The Referendum Database (RDB) was founded in 1994 at the University of Geneva. It contains key statistics on all national referendums worldwide, as well as a growing number of subnational referendums. The additional institutional variables for each country, along with the analyses conducted by the RDB team, make the Referendum Database a valuable resource for researchers, journalists, and interested citizens. An interdisciplinary team of legal scholars and political scientists at the Center for Democracy Studies in Aarau manages the RDB and continuously develops it further. In the future, the RDB will be expanded to include Landsgemeinde votes, and voting results at the municipal level will be recorded. The team periodically publishes additional reports and analyses. The dataset and codebook are available at https://c2d.ch/ and https://rdb.rpkg.dev/dev/articles/codebook.html, respectively. |
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Contact
Mara Labud
mara.labud@zda.uzh.ch
062 832 02 65
About the Center for Democracy Studies
The Centre for Democracy Studies Aarau is a scientific research centre supported by the University of Zurich, the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland, the Canton of Aargau and the City of Aarau. It conducts basic research and addresses current issues relating to democracy – regionally, in Switzerland and worldwide. www.zdaarau.ch