Tag: DDS21

Even though political parties spend large sums on social media campaigns during referendum campaigns, Instagram, Facebook, and other platforms are only a key source of information for a few when it comes to voting. How does this fit together? Results from a research project by the Center for Democracy Studies Aarau provide clues and raise questions about the regulation of social media.

One thing is clear: social media still plays a small role in shaping public opinion in Swiss elections. Nevertheless, parties invest considerable sums in social media campaigns during elections and referendums to convince voters of their positions. Data from the post-vote survey on the Environmental Responsibility Initiative (UVI) of February 9, 2025, from the “Direct Democracy Switzerland in the 21st Century (DDS-21)” project (see box) now provide two indications why the role of social media in political opinion-forming in Switzerland should not be underestimated. This also raises the question of social media regulation.

Users today are the young, but they are also getting older

As expected, people aged 18-24 used social media most frequently: First, in the youngest age group, more than a third of voters used social media specifically to inform themselves about the proposal. At the same time, only around 10 percent did not use social media at all. Thus, social media was only crucial for political information in the run-up to votes for a small number of eligible voters. However, because media habits remain relatively stable, this will likely change in the future, giving social media a more important role.

Daniel Kübler, professor at the Center for Democracy Studies Aarau, explains what this means: «Today’s young people frequently use social media. This accessibility also offers political actors the opportunity to reach young voters at an early age and mobilize them for politics.»

Minimum standard for political content

As the importance of social media increases, the question of how to regulate Instagram, Facebook, and other platforms arises. Based on the study’s findings, it can be argued that now is the time to conduct a social and political debate about possible regulations for these platforms. The goal should be to establish minimum standards for political content in order to ensure transparency regarding the financial resources used by political actors.

Gabriel Hofmann, doctoral student and research associate in the project, notes: «A majority of Swiss voters use social media in some form. Even if political content is only in the background, they are accessible to political actors, at least through paid content. Therefore, it is important to know which political actors buy reach and with which criteria.»

If this basic requirement is met, social media can contribute to better information for voters due to their low threshold.

About the project

«Direct Democracy Switzerland in the 21st Century (DDS-21)» The project «Direct Democracy Switzerland in the 21st Century (DDS-21)» is funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) and examines current issues in voting research. A representative online survey of Swiss voters is conducted after each vote. The project examines four research questions in more detail: How does political advertising influence voters? What does the digitalization of the media landscape, and social media in particular, do to the opinion-forming process? How can political knowledge and political competence be measured? And finally, how are fundamental moral and political values ​​related to voting decisions?

Further resources

• Blog article DeFacto German: «Von der Nische zum Mainstream? Die Bedeutung sozialer Medien für Schweizer Stimmberechtigte – DeFacto»
• Blog article DeFacto French: «De la niche au grand public ? L’importance des médias sociaux pour les citoyen·ne·s suisses »
• Blog article DeFacto Italian: «Da fenomeno di nicchia a elemento di tendenza? L’importanza dei social media per l’elettorato svizzero»

Contact

Gabriel Hofmann, doctoral student and research associate at the Center for Democracy Studies Aarau
hofmann@zda.uzh.ch, 062 836 94 57

Prof. Dr. Daniel Kübler, director, Center for Democray Studies Aarau
daniel.kuebler@zda.uzh.ch, 078 815 67 60

About the CDA

The Centre for Democracy Studies Aarau is a scientific research centre supported by the University of Zurich, the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland, the Canton of Aargau and the City of Aarau. It conducts basic research and addresses current issues relating to democracy – regionally, in Switzerland and worldwide. www.zdaarau.ch

Those who spend a lot of money on a referendum campaign are noticed more. However, if we take a closer look at the subjectively perceived intensity of a campaign for yes or no voters, a distortion becomes apparent: the campaign budget of the opposing side is overestimated. Results from a research project conducted by the Centre for Democracy Studies Aarau in collaboration with Année Politique Suisse show how this comes about.

Before referendums, posters and advertisements attempt to convince Swiss citizens to vote yes or no on the proposals. But how do citizens perceive the strength and thus the effectiveness of a referendum campaign on a particular issue? And does this subjective assessment correspond to the objectively measurable advertising expenditure? This is being investigated in an evaluation as part of the research project «Direct Democracy Switzerland in the 21st Century (DDS21)» (see box).

Budget creates effective campaigns

When citizens are asked how effective referendum campaigns are, their assessment corresponds quite closely with the measurable criteria of «advertising expenditure» and «advertisement volume». The authors of the evaluation note: «The assessment of the intensity of the campaigns shortly before the referendums in March and June corresponds to the measurable actual intensity. In both cases, respondents rate the advertising campaigns with the largest budgets and the highest volume of advertisements (13th AHV pension and Electricity Act) as the most intense.»

If you think your opponent has more money

However, if we differentiate between the perceptions of the yes and no camps, a more interesting effect emerges: the overestimation of the opposing side. When citizens are asked whether they believe one side was promoted more strongly than the other, the objective metrics do not correspond as well with subjective perceptions. Those who accepted a proposal generally estimated that the ‘no’ camp had run a more intensive campaign – and vice versa. Their own voting decision thus influenced their perception of how effective the opposing side’s campaign was.

One possible explanation for this effect could be that, from a psychological perspective, the different wording of the content resulted in a different assessment (framing bias). Interestingly, a similar effect occurs regardless of whether a camp wins or loses a vote.

Victim or outsider?

If a person votes yes and the proposal is rejected, respondents attributed this to the perceived financial superiority of the opposing camp. Seeing oneself as a «victim» of the higher budget of the opposing side can be a way of reducing the «stress» of a referendum defeat.

Fig. 1: How is the intensity of political advertising assessed by those voting yes and no on referendum 13 on the 13th AHV pension?

If the proposal is accepted, an outsider effect tends to kick in: even then, supporters (wrongly) assume that the opposing camp had more money at its disposal than their own. Despite the (supposed) campaign superiority of the opposing side, their own vote ultimately prevailed. The satisfaction that this brings is also stress-reducing in terms of «coping».

The authors of the evaluation summarise: «Even though it seems obvious that the intensity of referendum campaigns is important for the outcome of direct democratic decisions, we know surprisingly little about the effect of political advertising on individuals. Our findings suggest that citizens have a good sense of the intensity of political campaigns in general, but that this sense is misleading when it comes to distinguishing between the advertising power of the respective yes and no camps.»

The project «Direct Democracy Switzerland in the 21st Century (DDS21)» Since 2023, the research project Direct Democracy Switzerland in the 21st Century (DDS21), funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF), has been investigating the reasons for Swiss citizens’ participation and voting decisions after each federal referendum. Led by the Centre for Democracy Studies Aarau (CDA), which is affiliated with the University of Zurich, DDS21 brings together members of Switzerland’s eight university political science institutes and the Liechtenstein Institute. The data used in this article comes from surveys conducted after the votes on 3 March 2024 and 9 June 2024, in which more than 1,000 people were asked about their perceptions of the intensity of the voting campaigns for the five proposals: 13th AHV pension, pension initiative, premium relief initiative, electricity law, cost brake initiative, stop compulsory vaccination. Advertising expenditure and the number of advertisements per initiative were compared with the estimated intensity of the campaign.

Further resources

Blogbeitrag auf der Plattform DeFacto:
German, French, Italian
Project website: https://www.dds21.uzh.ch/de.html

Questions

Prof. Dr. Marc Bühlmann, Director Année Politique Suisse
marc.buehlmann@unibe.ch, 079 354 88 79

Prof. Dr. Isabelle Stadelmann-Steffen, Institut für Politikwissenschaft Bern
isabelle.stadelmann@unibe.ch, 031 684 83 55

Prof. Dr. Daniel Kübler, Center for Democracy Studies Aarau
daniel.kuebler@zda.uzh.ch, 078 815 67 60

About the CDA

The Centre for Democracy Studies Aarau is a scientific research centre supported by the University of Zurich, the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland, the Canton of Aargau and the City of Aarau. It conducts basic research and addresses current issues relating to democracy – regionally, in Switzerland and worldwide. www.zdaarau.ch

About Année Politique Suisse

Since 1965, Année Politique Suisse (APS) has been providing a precise, factual and concise chronicle of developments in Swiss politics and society. We follow political issues from their inception to any referendums and their implementation, report on important social controversies, summarise practical studies and reports, track landmark court rulings, developments in the party landscape and much more. A central concern for us is to embed current events in their historical context, because current events are often merely highlights of lengthy, often repetitive processes that can be traced with APS and placed in a larger context.

APS also provides a wealth of data on Swiss politics (e.g. swissvotes.ch) and participates in various political science research projects focusing on Switzerland. www.anneepolitique.swiss